Brazil Is About to Harvest More Coffee Than Ever Before
Brazil’s national crop agency CONAB dropped its first forecast for the 2026 harvest on February 5, and the numbers are staggering: 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags, a 17.1% jump over last year and the largest coffee harvest the country has ever produced. If it holds, this crop shatters the previous record of 63.1 million bags set back in 2020.
The headline driver is arabica. CONAB projects 44.1 million bags of the variety, up 23.3% year-on-year, thanks to expanded planting areas and the natural rhythm of the biennial cycle swinging into its high-yield phase. Conilon (Brazil’s robusta) is no slouch either, with 22.1 million bags forecast — a 6.4% increase that could set its own record.
Why the Surge
Coffee plants follow a biennial pattern, alternating between heavier and lighter harvests. This year, Brazil’s arabica trees are entering their “on” year, the productive side of that swing. But biology alone doesn’t explain the scale of the increase.
The real story is rain. After a punishing 2024 drought that scorched much of the Cerrado and sent arabica futures spiraling past $4 a pound, conditions have reversed dramatically. Heavier rains across practically all of Brazil’s coffee-growing regions arrived during the filling stage — the make-or-break window when beans are packing on weight and developing the sugars that shape flavor in the cup.
Minas Gerais, the state that produces more arabica than anywhere else on earth, is expected to harvest 32.4 million bags on its own, aided by improved rainfall during the flowering stages that matter most. Across all regions, productivity is forecast at 34.2 bags per hectare, a 12.4% improvement over last year, while the total planted area has expanded 4.1% to 1.9 million hectares.
Markets Are Already Reacting
Arabica futures have tumbled to around $3 per pound, near six-month lows, as traders price in the supply relief. That’s a steep fall from the peaks above $4.40 hit in late 2025, when drought fears and tight inventories had the market in a panic. The futures curve has been stuck in significant backwardation — the first time since 1998 it’s lasted this long — signaling that while near-term supplies remain tight, traders expect conditions to ease as the harvest progresses.
But here’s the catch: the world is drinking more coffee than ever. The USDA projects global consumption hitting 173.9 million bags this year, and ending stocks are forecast at just 20.1 million bags — a fifth consecutive year of declining inventories. Brazil’s bumper crop helps, but the math still doesn’t fully balance.
What This Means for Your Cup
If you’ve been paying more for coffee at your local roaster or cafe, don’t expect a price drop at the register anytime soon. Many roasters locked in green coffee at 2025’s elevated prices. That inventory needs to be roasted, packed, and sold before cheaper beans from the new harvest work through the system. The median cost of a regular cup at US restaurants has already reached $3.59, and specialty is well above that.
The lag between futures and retail is always measured in months, not days. But the trajectory is encouraging. Royal New York’s Q1 outlook notes that “global news and crop estimates, especially concerning Brazil, increasingly point to improving supply as 2026 progresses.” Certified ICE warehouse stocks are climbing alongside improving production and export numbers from multiple origins, including Honduras, Nicaragua, and a rebounding Vietnam.
The Bigger Picture
Brazil’s record forecast arrives at a moment when the coffee industry desperately needs breathing room. Two years of elevated prices have squeezed roasters, pushed some smaller operators to the brink, and left consumers wondering when the increases would stop.
A massive Brazilian harvest won’t solve everything — global demand keeps outpacing supply growth, and a drought or frost could quickly rewrite the forecast. CONAB’s February number is just the first estimate; it’ll be revised as the harvest unfolds through midyear. But for now, the signs from the world’s largest coffee producer are the most optimistic they’ve been in two years.
Farmers in Brazil are cautiously watching the weather and holding off on forward sales. Only about 8% of the 2026/27 crop has been sold forward so far, well below the historical average of 17%, because futures prices still sit below the spot rates growers can get right now. They’re betting the harvest will deliver — and that the market will eventually catch up.